Forum Posts by : nicholas ellis (Forum Member)

New York, United States

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Apr 15, 2009 0:46

Hi Ashraf,

Do you think the Kiwi is the best high yielder to sell on risk aversion days as opposed to the NOK and the AUS?

Also, why do you think the pound is acting so bullishly compared to the EUR? Is it because the BOE is already in Quant Easing?

Thanks for all the analysis.

Nicholas Ellis

California, United States

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Mar 19, 2009 18:10

In Thread: Here Comes the 2-Month Cycle

A thought on the market moving forward: So effectively the market has said the US has led "the world economy into recovery mode (p. 157-158)" and now we are on to the next leg which will signal a weakening dollar and a return to the downward secular trend of the dollar against higher yielders into the future???

Anyone who has your book would do themselves right by re-reading pages 157-159. Page 157 states: "... the dollar decline proved limited (in the 01-02 recession) as traders rewarded the currency due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive easing (the completion of which culminated with yesterdays fed move) which was seen as a means for the US economy to lead the world economy (our future from here forward)..."

What is your opinion about this? Do you think this move is sustainable or are you still looking at the next two months (buy in march sell in may theory) as a mini-rally (unless macro reports start to bottom or turn)?

note: (..) areas are my own commentary.

Best Regards,
Nicholas Ellis

Nicholas Ellis

California, United States

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Mar 4, 2009 22:01

In Thread: Equity/Gold Ratio's 40 yr Cycle

So let me get this concept right.

A low gold to oil ratio means a higher demand for energy and thus a presumption of increased economic activity and more enthusiasm for risk. While a high gold to oil ratio implies less demand for energy and thus a presumption of a contraction in economic activity and less enthusiasm for risk. The opposite can be said about the price movement in Gold in regards to a safe haven.

However, we also need to analyze the reasons driving the change in the ratio. Is it an increase or decrease in just Gold or just Oil or, a combination of both? And, what this relationships is telling us about the human psyche in regards to risk appetite?

Also, this seems like a chart to watch on a daily/weekly/monthly chart to gauge the overall market sentiment not so much a day trading indicator.

Posts by "nicholas ellis"